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Pattern Probability

Our pattern detection isn't folklore. Here's the measured win rate and expectancy of every pattern the engine surfaces — simulated on the exact bracket the product ships, over roughly a year of real, multi-exchange market data.

20
Patterns measured
40,367
Trades simulated
62.5%
Won, of resolved trades
+0.41R
Average expectancy
Leaderboard

Every pattern, ranked by measured expectancy

All 20 tradeable patterns, measured across 48,703 confirmed signals on 8 exchanges. Each one is scored at the reward target it actually ships with — 2R for thrust patterns, 1R for reversals. Starred rows clear both of our confidence bars: at least 1,000 signals and at least +0.50R expectancy.

#PatternDirectionTargetWin rateExpectancyTrades
1Bearish Momentum★ High confidence Bear2R
62.9%
+0.81R1,145
2Bearish Marubozu★ High confidence Bear2R
61.8%
+0.73R2,374
3Three Black Crows★ High confidence Bear2R
60.0%
+0.70R1,672
4Bullish Marubozu★ High confidence Bull2R
56.2%
+0.63R3,119
5Three Outside Up Bull1R
81.3%
+0.61R158
6Three Outside Down Bear1R
81.9%
+0.59R258
7Three White Soldiers★ High confidence Bull2R
54.5%
+0.58R1,558
8Bearish Engulfing Bear1R
77.8%
+0.54R523
9Volume Breakout · Bear★ High confidence Bear2R
53.1%
+0.51R1,079
10Volume Breakout · Bull★ High confidence Bull2R
51.3%
+0.50R1,374
11Bullish Momentum Bull2R
50.7%
+0.49R1,742
12Bullish Engulfing Bull1R
71.8%
+0.43R849
13Three Inside Down Bear1R
71.4%
+0.41R514
14Tweezer Bottom Bull1R
69.3%
+0.36R1,084
15Three Inside Up Bull1R
68.4%
+0.35R1,103
16Bearish Harami Bear1R
66.9%
+0.33R3,844
17Shooting Star Bear1R
66.4%
+0.32R4,476
18Tweezer Top Bear1R
65.6%
+0.30R1,163
19Bullish Harami Bull1R
63.7%
+0.26R6,643
20Hammer Bull1R
60.9%
+0.21R5,689
Win rate is the share of resolved trades that reached target rather than stop; 5.9% of trades touch neither within the 10-candle window and are excluded from it, scored 0R. Expectancy is the average result per trade entered, including every loser, expressed as a multiple of the amount risked — so +0.63R means a trade returned on average 0.63x what it put at risk. Three further signals (Volume Spike, Bullish/Bearish RSI Divergence) are deliberately excluded: production ships them no breakout bracket, so measuring them as breakout trades would be meaningless.
Methodology

How every number was measured

One fixed, fully mechanical rule set — no hindsight, no cherry-picking — and it is the same bracket the product places for you when a signal fires.

The trade rules
EntryA resting stop-order at the signal candle's extreme. If price never trades through it there is no trade — 3.4% of signals never fill and are excluded.
StopOne ATR(14) from your fill. That distance is your risk — one “R”.
Target2R for thrust patterns (momentum, marubozu, soldiers/crows, volume breakouts) and 1R for reversals — the same split the engine ships, because reversals do not reliably support a 2R target.
HorizonFirst touch within 10 candles; otherwise the trade is closed at market and scored 0R.
CohortConfirmed signals only — exactly what a user receives as an alert.
ConservativeFilled at the worse of the trigger or the gap-open, and if target and stop are both touched in one candle it is scored as a loss.
Reading the expectancy column

R is your risk per trade — here, one ATR from entry to stop. Measuring in R makes every pattern comparable regardless of price or timeframe.

Expectancy is not the reward-to-risk ratio. The setups target 1R or 2R; expectancy is what is left after averaging in every losing trade. An expectancy of +0.63R means each trade returned, on average, 0.63x what it risked — a figure that compounds, not a per-trade payout.

Because of that, breakeven sits well below 100%: a 2R setup only needs to be right 33.3% of the time and a 1R setup 50%. Across the whole cohort these patterns resolve in profit 62.5% of the time, for +0.41R per trade.

Risk by timeframe

The same edge, scaled to your chart

Risk is one ATR, so it grows with the timeframe while the R multiples stay fixed. Pick the timeframe that matches how much room you want to give a trade.

TimeframeTypical stop distanceReversal target (1R)Thrust target (2R)
1h1.21%1.21%2.42%
4h2.43%2.43%4.86%
8h3.76%3.76%7.52%
12h4.58%4.58%9.16%
1d6.65%6.65%13.30%
3d12.16%12.16%24.32%
Median 1x ATR(14) distance as a percentage of entry price, across all 48,703 confirmed signals. Overall median stop: 1.65%.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The figures on this page are historical measurements of our pattern-detection engine over a fixed data set of past market data, calculated with the mechanical rules described above. They assume entry at the trigger price and include no fees, funding or slippage, so they are an upper bound on what the same rules would have returned in practice; the ranking between patterns is more meaningful than any single absolute figure. The sample covers roughly twelve months of crypto markets — one regime, not a full cycle. These numbers are not a prediction of future returns, not a guarantee, and not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Always do your own research and trade only what you can afford to lose.

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